10 Heol Ysgubor, Caerphilly, CF83 1SR

UPRN:43012951End Terrace House2 bedsBuilt 1991-1995

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: C (70)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· freshEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£230,000

£207k - £253kMedium

Estimate

£230k

Range

£207k – £253k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,250

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,250

Yield

6.33%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

10 Heol Ysgubor earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 85/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

85/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

6/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -3.0% (MEDIUM), sold-comps -14.5%, £/sqft -14.6%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43012951· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.1%· as of 31 Oct 2026
Rental economics10.2/40
gross yield 6.3%; range width penalty ×0.96
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1250/mo (range 1150-1300)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -211/mo, -17% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 86 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
552 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£178,000£272,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£237,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,250/mo

Evidenced range £1,150-£1,300

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £74,640
Net cash flow: £66/mo
Cash on cash: 1.1%
Score at this price: 23

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.56 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43012951Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.1%Valuation edge · as of 31 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1250/mo (range 1150-1300)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1250/mo (range 1150-1300)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 86 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£230,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,250

Gross Yield6.33%

1y Growth+1.5%

3y Growth+3.9%

5y Growth+5.6%

10y Growth+4.8%

Last Sold Price£54,000 (2001-02-15)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1CF83 1SR

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0722/HH
Erect single storey rear extension
Pending
26/0715/RET
Retain the erection of a 2.3m high close-boarded timber fence
Pending
26/0706/CLPU
Obtain a Lawful Development Certificate for the proposed installation of solar panels
Pending

View Planning Timeline