5 Ael-y-Bryn, Caerphilly, CF83 2QX

UPRN:43017132Detached PropertyBeds -Built 1930-1949

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: D (60)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£365,000

£328k - £401kMedium

Estimate

£365k

Range

£328k – £401k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,650

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,650

Yield

4.17%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

5 Ael-y-Bryn earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 76/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

76/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

22/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 3 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge-0.6/15
claims [AVM -30.1% (MEDIUM)] → measured edge -0.12pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43017132· as of 10 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.2%; range width penalty ×0.90
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1650/mo (range 1500-1750)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -921/mo, -56% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 51 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
552 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£356,000£546,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£475,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,650/mo

Evidenced range £1,500-£1,750

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £157,550
Net cash flow: -£461/mo
Cash on cash: -3.5%
Score at this price: 12

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.03 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43017132Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1650/mo (range 1500-1750)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1650/mo (range 1500-1750)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 51 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£365,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,650

Gross Yield4.17%

1y Growth-4.8%

3y Growth+3.9%

5y Growth+5.6%

10y Growth+4.8%

Last Sold Price£142,000 (2003-09-20)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF83 2QX

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0664/RET
Retain and complete the change of use from B8 (Storage & Distribution) to A3 (Food & Drink)
Pending
26/0666/HH
Demolish existing conservatory and erect a single storey flat roof rear extension
Pending
26/0644/COND
Discharge condition 07 (Landscaping) of planning consent 25/0382/NCC (Vary conditions 02 (Plans) and 03 (Approval of the Proposed Amendments of Some of External Materials) of planning consent 20/0634/COU (Change use and erect extension at Y Fron from Guest House (C1) to HMO to be used for Emergency Housing/Move on Accommodation (Sui Generis) and associated works) to amend plans)
Pending

View Planning Timeline