39 Van Road, Caerphilly, CF83 1JZ

UPRN:43025267Mid Terrace House3 bedsBuilt before 1900

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: C (72)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 1mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£219,000

£198k - £241kMedium

Estimate

£219k

Range

£198k – £241k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,150

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,150

Yield

6.13%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

39 Van Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 68/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

68/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

57/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM -2.7% (MEDIUM), sold-comps +5.9%, £/sqft +6.0%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43025267· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.2%· as of 29 Oct 2026
Rental economics8.5/40
gross yield 6.1%; range width penalty ×0.94
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1150/mo (range 1100-1250)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
- listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield· as of 2 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -234/mo, -20% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 31 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.9/15
552 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£169,000£258,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£225,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,150/mo

Evidenced range £1,100-£1,250

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £70,800
Net cash flow: £37/mo
Cash on cash: 0.6%
Score at this price: 24

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.51 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43025267Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.2%Valuation edge · as of 29 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1150/mo (range 1100-1250)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yieldRental economics · as of 2 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1150/mo (range 1100-1250)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
listing text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£219,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,150

Gross Yield6.13%

1y Growth-2.8%

3y Growth+3.9%

5y Growth+5.6%

10y Growth+4.8%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF83 1JZ

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0697/FULL
Erect two storey and single storey rear extensions with internal alterations to extend an existing two storey dental practice, works include the erection of a detached refuse storage area
Pending
26/0680/COND
Discharge conditions 17 (Scheme for control of odour), 19 (Illumination- site lighting), 25 (Travel plan (commercial development) and 27 (Odour - ventilation scheme) of planning consent 24/0120/LA (Erect new leisure and wellbeing hub including swimming pool, studios and fitness suite, along with associated car parking and landscaping)
Pending
26/0678/COU
Change the use of retail unit (Use Class A1) to café (Use Class A3)
Pending

View Planning Timeline