3 Birchgrove, Tirphil, New Tredegar, NP24 6AH

UPRN:43037637Terrace Property3 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (69)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

3 Birchgrove, Tirphil, New Tredegar, NP24 6AH

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£125,000

£119k - £132kHigh

Estimate

£125k

Range

£119k – £132k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,000

£950 - £1k

Monthly

£1,000

Yield

10.43%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

3 Birchgrove earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 64/100. Investment score 68/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

64/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

68/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

50/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Reduced confidence2 independent sourcesListing checked 3 Nov 2026

Fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +8.0% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43037637· as of 13 Oct 2026
Rental economics40/40
gross yield 10.4%; range width penalty ×1.00
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1000/mo (range 950-1050)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin12/30
stressed cash flow +120/mo, +12% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 167 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
58 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 70+ up to £106,500

£86,000£132,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£115,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,000/mo

Evidenced range £950-£1,050

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £35,800
Net cash flow: £304/mo
Cash on cash: 10.2%
Score at this price: 67

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 2.58 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43037637Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1000/mo (range 950-1050)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is reduced
fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1000/mo (range 950-1050)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 167 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £106,500 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
4. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£125,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,000

Gross Yield10.43%

1y Growth+38.8%

3y Growth+1.4%

5y Growth+3.2%

10y Growth+5.5%

Last Sold Price£85,000 (2023-10-30)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP24 6AH

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0620/HH
Erect first floor extension on existing ground floor rear extension
Pending
26/0600/COU
Change the use of retail unit into self contained two bedroom flat
Pending
26/0548/CLEU
Obtain a Lawful Development Certificate for existing use of the land as garden area associated with No. 9 St Davids Park
Approved

View Planning Timeline