Oak Lodge, 45 Cwrt y Coed, Blackwood, NP12 1GL

UPRN:43051644Detached House5 bedsBuilt 1996-2002

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band FEPC: C (74)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 1mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

Oak Lodge, 45 Cwrt y Coed, Blackwood, NP12 1GL

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£398,000

£378k - £418kHigh

Estimate

£398k

Range

£378k – £418k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,250

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,250

Yield

3.61%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Oak Lodge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 83/100. Investment score 76/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

83/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

76/ 100

High

Crime Score

21/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 30 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -4.3% (HIGH), sold-comps -32.2%, £/sqft -32.1%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43051644· as of 9 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 23.4%· as of 19 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 3.6%; range width penalty ×0.80
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1250/mo (range 1100-1350)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -962/mo, -77% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 30 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 89 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 30 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
289 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£311,000£477,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£415,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,250/mo

Evidenced range £1,100-£1,350

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £136,550
Net cash flow: -£535/mo
Cash on cash: -4.7%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.89 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43051644Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 23.4%Valuation edge · as of 19 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1250/mo (range 1100-1350)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 30 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 30 Oct 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1250/mo (range 1100-1350)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 89 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£398,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,250

Gross Yield3.61%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+5.8%

5y Growth+3.7%

10y Growth+5.5%

Last Sold Price£228,000 (2015-07-17)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP12 1GL

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0685/NCC
Vary condition 02 (Approved Plans) of Planning Consent 26/0260/FULL (Refurbish Unit 5 and Unit 6/7 including external amalgamation works to create 1 no. retail unit for continued use within Class A1, erect a rear extension, relocated customer entrance/exit, new condenser plant, new trolley shelters, and all associated works)
Pending
26/0603/HH
Erect two storey side extension
Pending
26/0570/COND
Discharge condition 07 (Waste) of planning consent 26/0260/FULL (Refurbish Unit 5 and Unit 6/7 including external amalgamation works to create 1 no. retail unit for continued use within Class A1, erect a rear extension, relocated customer entrance/exit, new condenser plant, new trolley shelters, and all associated works)
Approved

View Planning Timeline