30 Tyn-y-Waun Road, Machen, Caerphilly, CF83 8LA

UPRN:43064660Mid Terrace House2 bedsBuilt 1996-2002

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: C (72)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 2mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

30 Tyn-y-Waun Road, Machen, Caerphilly, CF83 8LA

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£222,000

£211k - £233kHigh

Estimate

£222k

Range

£211k – £233k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,200

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,200

Yield

6.40%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

30 Tyn-y-Waun Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 84/100. Investment score 74/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

84/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

74/ 100

High

Crime Score

10/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -1.4% (HIGH), sold-comps -30.1%, £/sqft -30.2%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43064660· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 19.7%· as of 23 Oct 2026
Rental economics10.6/40
gross yield 6.4%; range width penalty ×0.95
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1200/mo (range 1100-1250)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -197/mo, -16% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 77 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
552 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£169,000£258,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£225,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,200/mo

Evidenced range £1,100-£1,250

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £70,800
Net cash flow: £71/mo
Cash on cash: 1.2%
Score at this price: 25

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.58 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43064660Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 19.7%Valuation edge · as of 23 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1200/mo (range 1100-1250)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1200/mo (range 1100-1250)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 77 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£222,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,200

Gross Yield6.40%

1y Growth+10.5%

3y Growth+3.9%

5y Growth+5.6%

10y Growth+4.8%

Last Sold Price£200,000 (2024-09-20)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningSignificant
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF83 8LA

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0319/HH
Erect side extension and alterations to existing roof
Approved
26/0321/HH
Erect first floor rear extension
Approved
26/0137/COND
Discharge of Condition 12 (Site control - scheme maj dev 1) to planning consent 23/0214/FULL (Carry out a phased development to erect 5 No. dwellings, access, car parking, landscaping and associated works)
Pending

View Planning Timeline