12 Orchid Grove, Pontllanfraith, Blackwood, NP12 2RQ

UPRN:43178521Semi-Detached House3 bedsBuilt 2020

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: B (84)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

12 Orchid Grove, Pontllanfraith, Blackwood, NP12 2RQ

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

15 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£185,000

£166k - £203kMedium

Estimate

£185k

Range

£166k – £203k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£950

£900 - £1k

Monthly

£950

Yield

3.86%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

12 Orchid Grove earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 73/100. Investment score 75/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

73/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

75/ 100

High

Crime Score

46/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge-0.6/15
claims [AVM -59.5% (MEDIUM), sold-comps -9.7%, £/sqft -9.7%] → measured edge -0.12pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43178521· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 23.9%· as of 29 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 3.9%; range width penalty ×0.88
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 950/mo (range 900-1050)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -676/mo, -71% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 72 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
289 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£221,000£339,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£295,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£950/mo

Evidenced range £900-£1,050

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £94,550
Net cash flow: -£338/mo
Cash on cash: -4.3%
Score at this price: 12

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.95 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43178521Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 23.9%Valuation edge · as of 29 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 950/mo (range 900-1050)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 950/mo (range 900-1050)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£185,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£950

Gross Yield3.86%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+5.8%

5y Growth+3.7%

10y Growth+5.5%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP12 2RQ

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0725/COND
Discharge of conditions 10 (Site control - scheme maj dev 1) and 14 (CEMP) of planning permission 25/0494/FULL (Demolish existing bus depot building, regrading of site and erect a Class A1 retail foodstore with surface level car parking, landscaping, and all associated drainage and engineering operations and service connections)
Pending
26/0720/COND
Discharge of conditions 8 (Illumination - floodlighting control of) & 16 (Photovoltaic panels) of planning permission 25/0494/FULL (Demolish existing bus depot building, regrading of site and erect a Class A1 retail foodstore with surface level car parking, landscaping, and all associated drainage and engineering operations and service connections)
Pending
26/0723/COND
Discharge of condition 03 (Contamination - scheme to treat) to planning permission 25/0494/FULL (Demolish existing bus depot building, regrading of site and erect a Class A1 retail foodstore with surface level car parking, landscaping, and all associated drainage and engineering operations and service connections)
Pending

View Planning Timeline