3 Elsrick Avenue, Morden, SM4 5RF

UPRN:48025424End Terrace House3 bedsBuilt 1930-1949

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: C (72)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 4mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£661,000

£595k - £727kMedium

Estimate

£661k

Range

£595k – £727k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,350

£3k - £4k

Monthly

£3,350

Yield

4.35%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

3 Elsrick Avenue earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 75/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (68/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

75/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

23/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

68/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 51Bike 66

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the advert has 6 bedrooms but the valuation snapshot describes 3 - an extension, conversion or HMO the evidence does not reflect, or a different home. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge-0.6/15
claims [AVM -39.9% (MEDIUM), sold-comps -78.6%, £/sqft -78.6%] → measured edge -0.12pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 48025424· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 15.6%· as of 30 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.3%; range width penalty ×0.90
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3350/mo (range 3100-3600)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,570/mo, -47% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 31 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
218 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£694,000£1,064,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£925,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,350/mo

Evidenced range £3,100-£3,600

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £315,050
Net cash flow: -£803/mo
Cash on cash: -3.1%
Score at this price: 12

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.07 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 48025424Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 15.6%Valuation edge · as of 30 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3350/mo (range 3100-3600)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3350/mo (range 3100-3600)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 31 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£661,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,350

Gross Yield4.35%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.6%

5y Growth+1.7%

10y Growth+2.6%

Last Sold Price£487,500 (2015-11-04)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0SM4 5RF

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

CLC2026/00169
Application to clear condition 14 (Refuse and Recycling) of approved application DM2024/00221.
Pending
26/PAHE/1209
APPLICATION FOR PRIOR APPROVAL IN RESPECT OF THE PROPOSED ERECTION OF A SINGLE STOREY REAR EXTENSION WITH A DEPTH OF 6M, MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF 4M AND EAVES HEIGHT OF 3M.
Pending
DM2026/00721
(OGEAA5358549) 10m Wooden pole
Unresolved

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership59%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2015-11-04
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

5 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£43,507

Population Density6,247 /km²

Owner Occupied50%

Age Distribution

0-15 19%16-64 68%65+ 13%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Morden Primary School
0.2 mi
Good
Abbotsbury Primary School
0.2 mi
Good
Perseid School
0.3 mi
-
Hillcross Primary School
0.5 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.

2 of 12 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

2 Elsrick Avenue
-
£675k
-
3 Elsrick Avenue
-
£488k
-
4 Elsrick Avenue
-
£315k
-
8 Elsrick Avenue
-
£330k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN