42 Birch Close, Patchway, Bristol, BS34 5SA

UPRN:504229Semi-Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1976-1982

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band BEPC: D (61)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

42 Birch Close, Patchway, Bristol, BS34 5SA

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£285,000

£271k - £300kHigh

Estimate

£285k

Range

£271k – £300k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,800

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,800

Yield

7.58%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

42 Birch Close earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 63/100. Investment score 45/100 reflects below-average fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (40/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

63/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

45/ 100

Mixed

Crime Score

28/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

40/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 10Bike 53

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 30 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +0.0% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 504229· as of 9 Oct 2026
Rental economics20.2/40
gross yield 7.6%; range width penalty ×0.98
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1800/mo (range 1700-1900)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -9/mo, -1% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 30 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 161 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 30 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
410 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 70+ up to £214,000

£214,000£328,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£285,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,800/mo

Evidenced range £1,700-£1,900

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £91,050
Net cash flow: £284/mo
Cash on cash: 3.7%
Score at this price: 35

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.87 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 504229Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1800/mo (range 1700-1900)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 30 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 30 Oct 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1800/mo (range 1700-1900)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 161 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £214,000 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£285,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,800

Gross Yield7.58%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-2.0%

5y Growth+2.7%

10y Growth+3.9%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0BS34 5SA

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

P26/02463/F
Erection of a single storey side extension to form enlarged workshop and reception area for customers (Class B2) with associated works.
Pending
DOC26/00347
Discharge of condition 19 (Travel Plan) attached to Planning Permission P25/01677/RVC. Variation of condition 2 (approved plans) and removal of conditions 16 (Landscaping) attached to permission P21/06296/F. Discharge of Conditions 4 (contamination study), 5 (prevention of pollution), 7 (CEMP) and 21 (invasive species) attached to permission P21/06296/F. Erection of railway station with 1 no. footbridge, temporary car park, access and associated works.
Pending
P26/02109/HH
Erection of single storey front extension to form porch and additional living accommodation. (Amendment to previously approved scheme P24/00991/HH)
Pending

View Planning Timeline