11 Patrick Way, Aylesbury, HP21 9XH

UPRN:766019989Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1976-1982

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: D (60)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 2mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£438,000

£416k - £460kHigh

Estimate

£438k

Range

£416k – £460k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,700

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,700

Yield

4.80%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

11 Patrick Way earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 74/100. Investment score 62/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (35/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

74/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

62/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

4/ 100

Low

Walkability

35/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 18Bike 28

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +3.0% (HIGH), sold-comps -16.8%, £/sqft -16.9%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766019989· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 24%· as of 28 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.8%; range width penalty ×0.85
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1550-1850)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -673/mo, -40% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 212 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
306 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£319,000£488,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£425,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,700/mo

Evidenced range £1,550-£1,850

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £140,050
Net cash flow: -£257/mo
Cash on cash: -2.2%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.19 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766019989Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 24%Valuation edge · as of 28 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1550-1850)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1700/mo (range 1550-1850)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 212 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£438,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,700

Gross Yield4.80%

1y Growth-0.3%

3y Growth+1.1%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.0%

Last Sold Price£202,000 (2005-05-26)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1HP21 9XH

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08456/FA
Householder application for demolition of existing porch, erection of two single storey extensions to existing bungalow. Extension to existing flat roofed garage
Pending
PL/26/08348/CONDA
Approval of details reserved by conditions 5 (Electric vehicle charging point) 6 (Scheme of planting) of planning approval 25/01368/APP
Pending
PL/26/08293/FA
Householder application for the demolition of the existing single-storey side extension and erection of a replacement single-storey side extension on the same footprint, with the same scale and height.
Pending

View Planning Timeline