49 Carnation Way, Aylesbury, HP21 8TX

UPRN:766023895End Terrace House2 bedsBuilt 1991-1995

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: C (72)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 2mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£306,000

£291k - £322kHigh

Estimate

£306k

Range

£291k – £322k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,550

£1k - £2k

Monthly

£1,550

Yield

6.31%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

49 Carnation Way earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 67/100. Investment score 61/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (36/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

67/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

61/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

25/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

36/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 23Bike 35

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +3.6% (HIGH), sold-comps -17.1%, £/sqft -17.2%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766023895· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 4.5%· as of 1 Nov 2026
Rental economics9.2/40
gross yield 6.3%; range width penalty ×0.88
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1550/mo (range 1450-1700)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -235/mo, -15% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 63 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
306 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£221,000£339,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£295,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,550/mo

Evidenced range £1,450-£1,700

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £94,550
Net cash flow: £77/mo
Cash on cash: 1.0%
Score at this price: 24

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.56 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766023895Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 4.5%Valuation edge · as of 1 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1550/mo (range 1450-1700)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1550/mo (range 1450-1700)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 63 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£306,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,550

Gross Yield6.31%

1y Growth+19.9%

3y Growth+1.1%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.0%

Last Sold Price£157,700 (2012-03-30)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0HP21 8TX

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08339/SA
Certificate of Lawfulness for proposed use of the existing ground-floor commercial premises as CAN-DY artisan desserts, a small artisan dessert retail shop within Use Class E(a), replacing the former hairdressing salon use within Class E(c)(ii)
Pending
PL/26/07572/FA
Relocation of internal staircase to external location.
Pending
PL/26/08269/FA
Demolition of existing buildings and erection of modular rental vehicle office and rental vehicle wash bay, external layout reconfiguration, and associated works including site resurfacing, lighting and boundary treatment.
Pending

View Planning Timeline