15 Evans Close, Aylesbury, HP21 9YA

UPRN:766045102Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1983-1990

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: D (59)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 3mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£473,000

£449k - £496kHigh

Estimate

£473k

Range

£449k – £496k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,850

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,850

Yield

4.67%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

15 Evans Close earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 74/100. Investment score 58/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (37/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

74/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

58/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

4/ 100

Low

Walkability

37/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 17Bike 28

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge1.9/15
claims [AVM -0.4% (HIGH), sold-comps +2.3%, £/sqft +2.3%] → measured edge +0.38pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766045102· as of 10 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8%· as of 28 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.7%; range width penalty ×0.88
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1850/mo (range 1700-2000)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -774/mo, -42% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 49 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
306 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£356,000£546,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£475,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,850/mo

Evidenced range £1,700-£2,000

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £157,550
Net cash flow: -£322/mo
Cash on cash: -2.5%
Score at this price: 17

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.15 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766045102Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8%Valuation edge · as of 28 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1850/mo (range 1700-2000)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1850/mo (range 1700-2000)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 49 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£473,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,850

Gross Yield4.67%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.1%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.0%

Last Sold Price£385,000 (2019-01-04)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1HP21 9YA

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08293/FA
Householder application for the demolition of the existing single-storey side extension and erection of a replacement single-storey side extension on the same footprint, with the same scale and height.
Pending
PL/26/07739/FA
Specialist neurological and spinal rehabilitation unit, including the change of use from sui generis hostel accommodation to Use Class C2 residential institution. Reconfiguration of internal layout and external works including new exterior windows and doors, louvres, bin store, external plant, parking provision and landscaping works.
Pending
PL/26/07767/SA
Certificate of lawfulness for proposed single storey extension to the rear with pitched roof and velux windows.
Pending

View Planning Timeline