21 Waterlily, Aylesbury, HP19 0FJ

UPRN:766261042Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1991-1995

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: D (68)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£423,000

£402k - £444kHigh

Estimate

£423k

Range

£402k – £444k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,750

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,750

Yield

4.94%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

21 Waterlily earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 70/100. Investment score 60/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (24/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

70/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

60/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

7/ 100

Low

Walkability

24/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 15Bike 22

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.5% (HIGH), sold-comps -19.7%, £/sqft -19.7%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766261042· as of 10 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 10.1%· as of 24 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.9%; range width penalty ×0.86
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1750/mo (range 1600-1900)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -637/mo, -36% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 145 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
273 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£319,000£488,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£425,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,750/mo

Evidenced range £1,600-£1,900

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £140,050
Net cash flow: -£223/mo
Cash on cash: -1.9%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.22 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766261042Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 10.1%Valuation edge · as of 24 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1750/mo (range 1600-1900)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1750/mo (range 1600-1900)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 145 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£423,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,750

Gross Yield4.94%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+2.8%

5y Growth+2.4%

10y Growth+2.3%

Last Sold Price£300,000 (2015-09-11)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0HP19 0FJ

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08503/SA
Certificate of lawfulness for proposed single storey rear extension
Pending
PL/26/07875/SA
Certificate of Lawfulness for proposed removal of existing pavement and installation of drop kerb to front of property with opening approximately 3 metres or maximum permissible in area and location to provide access to permeable surfaced driveway
Pending
PL/26/07517/FA
Proposed vehicular access and driveway
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership51%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2015-09-11
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

7 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£35,937

Population Density1,727 /km²

Owner Occupied74%

Age Distribution

0-15 15%16-64 69%65+ 16%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Buckingham Park Church of England Primary School
0.6 mi
Good
St Louis Catholic Primary School
0.7 mi
Good
Elmhurst School
0.7 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Bierton Church of England Combined School
0.9 mi
-

4 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

19 Waterlily
-
£350k
-
5 Waterlily
-
£400k
-
2 Waterlily
-
£320k
-
3 Waterlily
-
£338k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN