59 Churchill Avenue, Aylesbury, HP21 8NF

UPRN:766292311Purpose Built Flat2 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band BEPC: D (60)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 2mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 4mo ago

59 Churchill Avenue, Aylesbury, HP21 8NF

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£249,000

£236k - £261kHigh

Estimate

£249k

Range

£236k – £261k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,600

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,600

Yield

8.00%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

59 Churchill Avenue earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 65/100. Investment score 58/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (38/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

65/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

58/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

25/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

38/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 35Bike 48

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceLead to verifyListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +3.6% (HIGH), sold-comps -19.4%, £/sqft -19.6%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766292311· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 18.8%· as of 4 Nov 2026
Rental economics24/40
gross yield 8.0%; range width penalty ×1.00
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1600/mo (range 1500-1650)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin2.1/30
stressed cash flow +34/mo, +2% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 102 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
306 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 70+ up to £186,000

£180,000£276,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£240,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,600/mo

Evidenced range £1,500-£1,650

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £75,600
Net cash flow: £298/mo
Cash on cash: 4.7%
Score at this price: 41

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.98 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766292311Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 18.8%Valuation edge · as of 4 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1600/mo (range 1500-1650)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1600/mo (range 1500-1650)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £186,000 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
4. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£249,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,600

Gross Yield8.00%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.1%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.0%

Last Sold Price£237,500 (2022-12-16)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

3HP21 8NF

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08339/SA
Certificate of Lawfulness for proposed use of the existing ground-floor commercial premises as CAN-DY artisan desserts, a small artisan dessert retail shop within Use Class E(a), replacing the former hairdressing salon use within Class E(c)(ii)
Pending
PL/26/07572/FA
Relocation of internal staircase to external location.
Pending
PL/26/08823/TELN
Notification under Regulation 5 of The Electronic Communications Code (Conditions and Restrictions) Regulations 2003 (as amended) for the installation of a 2mm steel EN1088-2 / 1.4003 (3CR12) powder coated: midnight green RAL: 12B29 cabinet
Approved

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership64.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining85 yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeLeasehold
Last Ownership Change2022-12-16
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

6 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£35,937

Population Density3,854 /km²

Owner Occupied38%

Age Distribution

0-15 24%16-64 63%65+ 13%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Oak Green School
0.3 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Ashmead Combined School
0.3 mi
Inspected as Ashmead Combined School (URN 110356) on 15 Jan 2020
Pebble Brook School
0.4 mi
Good
Sir Henry Floyd Grammar School
0.5 mi
OutstandingConcerns

4 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

59 Churchill Avenue
-
£238k
-
5B Churchill Avenue
-
£310k
-
47 Churchill Avenue
-
£248k
-
29 Churchill Avenue
-
£240k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN