4 Welland Road, Aylesbury, HP21 9NN

UPRN:766293142End Terrace House2 bedsBuilt 1976-1982

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band BEPC: D (66)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£283,000

£269k - £297kHigh

Estimate

£283k

Range

£269k – £297k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,450

£1k - £2k

Monthly

£1,450

Yield

6.11%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

4 Welland Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 73/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (45/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

73/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

12/ 100

Low

Walkability

45/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 21Bike 31

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM -0.7% (HIGH), sold-comps +4.7%, £/sqft +4.6%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766293142· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 17.1%· as of 20 Oct 2026
Rental economics8.2/40
gross yield 6.1%; range width penalty ×0.92
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1450/mo (range 1350-1550)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -267/mo, -18% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 78 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
306 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£214,000£328,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£285,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,450/mo

Evidenced range £1,350-£1,550

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £91,050
Net cash flow: £42/mo
Cash on cash: 0.6%
Score at this price: 25

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.51 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766293142Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 17.1%Valuation edge · as of 20 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1450/mo (range 1350-1550)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1450/mo (range 1350-1550)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 78 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£283,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,450

Gross Yield6.11%

1y Growth+10.9%

3y Growth+1.1%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.0%

Last Sold Price£258,000 (2023-08-29)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseBelow 40 dB

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0HP21 9NN

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08381/HS2
In accordance with requirements of Paragraph 9(1) of Schedule 17 to the High Speed Rail (London - West Midlands) Act 2017, the nominated undertaker hereby requests approval for Work Nos. 2/43 and 2/47 described in Schedule 1 of the HS2 (London - West Midlands) Act 2017 to BE BROUGHT INTO USE
Pending
PL/26/08386/HS2
In accordance with requirements of Paragraph 9(4)(b) of Schedule 17 to the High-Speed Rail (London - West Midlands) Act 2017, the nominated undertaker hereby requests approval of a SCHEME OF MITIGATION for Work No. 2/28(in part), 2/43 and 2/47 described in Schedule 1 of the HS2 (London - West Midlands) Act 2017
Pending
PL/26/08389/HS2
Plans and specifications submission under Schedule 17 of the High Speed Rail (London - West Midlands) Act 2017 for works comprising: - Footpath SMA/16 Accommodation Overbridge and associated earthworks - SBH/19 Bridleway Oat Close Overbridge and associated earthworks - Footpath SBH/34 Accommodation Overbridge and associated earthworks - Aylesbury South Cutting (Part of) - Aylesbury Embankment - Aylesbury North Cutting (Part of) - Earthworks associated with Footpath SMA/16 realignment - Earthworks associated with Access Track 1 - HS2 maintenance access to Drainage Ponds 6 and 7 - Earthworks associated with SBH/19 Oat Close Bridleway - Stoke Brook Watercourse Enhancements Diversion - Sedrup North Watercourse Diversion -Earthworks associated with the 8 No. Ecology Ponds - Earthworks associated with the 7 No. Drainage Ponds - Drainage Ditches - 6 No. Culverts (above ground elements) - Noise Barriers - 7 No. Ditch Crossings ('Slab Crossings') - Location of the Vehicle Restraint Barriers - Location of the permanent (security and boundary) fencing
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership64.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2023-08-29
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

21 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£35,937

Population Density5,858 /km²

Owner Occupied47%

Age Distribution

0-15 24%16-64 65%65+ 11%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Ashmead Combined School
0.3 mi
Inspected as Ashmead Combined School (URN 110356) on 15 Jan 2020
The Mandeville School
0.6 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Oak Green School
0.7 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Pebble Brook School
0.7 mi
Good

3 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

1 Welland Road
-
£320k
-
4 Welland Road
-
£258k
-
5 Welland Road
-
£257k
-
3 Welland Road
-
£230k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN