21 Chelsea Road, Aylesbury, HP19 7BG

UPRN:766325767Detached House5 bedsBuilt 2003-2006

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: C (72)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 1mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£580,000

£522k - £638kMedium

Estimate

£580k

Range

£522k – £638k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,400

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,400

Yield

4.43%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

21 Chelsea Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 78/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (60/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

78/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

9/ 100

Low

Walkability

60/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 11Bike 52

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge-0.6/15
claims [AVM -12.1% (MEDIUM), sold-comps -24.3%, £/sqft -24.2%] → measured edge -0.12pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766325767· as of 10 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 16%· as of 6 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.4%; range width penalty ×0.82
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2400/mo (range 2150-2600)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,108/mo, -46% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 65 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
273 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£487,500£747,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£650,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,400/mo

Evidenced range £2,150-£2,600

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £218,800
Net cash flow: -£532/mo
Cash on cash: -2.9%
Score at this price: 12

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.09 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 766325767Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 16%Valuation edge · as of 6 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2400/mo (range 2150-2600)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2400/mo (range 2150-2600)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 65 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£580,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,400

Gross Yield4.43%

1y Growth-3.3%

3y Growth+2.8%

5y Growth+2.4%

10y Growth+2.3%

Last Sold Price£296,950 (2005-12-09)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0HP19 7BG

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

PL/26/06770/NMA
Non material amendment to planning permission 22/03890/APP (Demolition of former medical centre to provide 26 affordable dwellings) - reason - internal layout changes, building footprint, elevational changes, balcony changes and roof changes
Approved
PL/26/06653/CONDA
Application for approval of details subject to condition 3 (landscaping) of planning approval 25/00420/ADP.
Pending
PL/26/06434/NMA
Non material amendment to planning permission PL/25/4371/FA (Internal alterations to existing buildings and construction of new single storey side extension) to allow for changes to the front elevation and omission of the roof light in the rear pitched roof of the extension.
Rejected

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership51%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2005-12-09
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

3 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£35,937

Population Density5,500 /km²

Owner Occupied75%

Age Distribution

0-15 23%16-64 68%65+ 9%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

St Mary's Church of England School
0.6 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Thomas Hickman School
0.7 mi
Good
The Pace Centre
1.0 mi
Outstanding
The Aylesbury Vale Academy
1.0 mi
Good

3 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

5 Chelsea Road
-
£370k
-
33 Chelsea Road
-
£440k
-
14 Chelsea Road
-
£290k
-
36 Chelsea Road
-
£360k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN