254 Elm Park Avenue, Hornchurch, RM12 4PQ

UPRN:100021328541End Terrace House3 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band DEPC: D (60)

Data freshness:Listing· freshOwnership· freshRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

254 Elm Park Avenue, Hornchurch, RM12 4PQ

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£477,000

£453k - £501kHigh

Estimate

£477k

Range

£453k – £501k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,050

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,050

Yield

5.18%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

254 Elm Park Avenue earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 71/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is good (75/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

71/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

47/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

75/ 100

High

Transit & Bike

Transit 44Bike 46

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 11 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +0.4% (HIGH), sold-comps -10.5%, £/sqft -10.5%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100021328541· as of 14 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.5%· as of 1 Nov 2026
Rental economics1.3/40
gross yield 5.2%; range width penalty ×0.91
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2050/mo (range 1900-2200)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -627/mo, -31% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 11 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 55 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 11 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
352 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£356,000£546,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£475,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,050/mo

Evidenced range £1,900-£2,200

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £157,550
Net cash flow: -£184/mo
Cash on cash: -1.4%
Score at this price: 16

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.28 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100021328541Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.5%Valuation edge · as of 1 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2050/mo (range 1900-2200)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 11 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 11 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2050/mo (range 1900-2200)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 55 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£477,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,050

Gross Yield5.18%

1y Growth-2.3%

3y Growth+3.0%

5y Growth+2.1%

10y Growth+2.9%

Last Sold Price£240,000 (2007-09-28)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

3RM12 4PQ

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

P1278.26
Conversion of loft to habitable space with rear dormer and roof lights to front
Pending
Y0253.26
Single storey rear extension with an overall depth of 6m, a maximum height of 4m, and an eaves height of 3m. (PRIOR APPROVAL)
Pending
P1219.26
Demolition of existing garage and rear conservatory. Erection of a part single, part two-storey rear extension, a first-floor front extension, the demolition of the existing detached garage, and the creation of a new rear patio within the garden.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership60.7%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2007-09-28
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

5 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£40,726

Population Density8,628 /km²

Owner Occupied76%

Age Distribution

0-15 21%16-64 64%65+ 15%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Elm Park Primary School
0.4 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Benhurst Primary School
0.5 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Hornchurch High School
0.6 mi
Inspected as The Albany School (URN 137189) on 24 Feb 2015
Abbs Cross Academy and Arts College
0.6 mi
Good

2 of 13 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

236 Elm Park Avenue
-
£440k
-
278 Elm Park Avenue
-
£400k
-
274 Elm Park Avenue
-
£420k
-
262 Elm Park Avenue
-
£440k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN