33 Circus Lodge, Circus Road, London, NW8 9JN

UPRN:100022736014Purpose Built Flat1 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: C (70)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 2mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 4mo ago

33 Circus Lodge, Circus Road, London, NW8 9JN

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£633,000

£602k - £665kHigh

Estimate

£633k

Range

£602k – £665k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,200

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£3,200

Yield

6.14%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

33 Circus Lodge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 82/100. Investment score 70/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is excellent (92/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

82/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

70/ 100

High

Crime Score

25/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

92/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 64Bike 71

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 7 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +1.3% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100022736014· as of 9 Nov 2026
Rental economics8.1/40
gross yield 6.1%; range width penalty ×0.89
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3200/mo (range 2950-3450)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -415/mo, -13% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 7 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 242 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 7 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
188 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£469,000£719,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£625,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,200/mo

Evidenced range £2,950-£3,450

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £210,050
Net cash flow: £106/mo
Cash on cash: 0.6%
Score at this price: 23

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.52 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100022736014Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3200/mo (range 2950-3450)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 7 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 7 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3200/mo (range 2950-3450)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£633,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,200

Gross Yield6.14%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-12.9%

5y Growth-1.0%

10y Growth-1.6%

Last Sold Price£738,000 (2017-09-20)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NW8 9JN

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/07502/FULL
Installation of two air conditioning condenser units at main roof level, with associated anti-vibration mounts and external refrigerant trunking to the rear elevation.
Pending
26/07481/FULL
Minor alterations to fenestration in connection with internal remodelling, including the upgrading of external windows to the north rear classroom block and localised alterations to window sill heights.
Pending
26/07480/FULL
Minor alterations to fenestration in support of internal remodelling.
Pending

View Planning Timeline