14 Birchwood Drive, Lightwater, GU18 5RX

UPRN:100061560694Detached House4 bedsBuilt 1983-1990

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: C (76)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 3mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

14 Birchwood Drive, Lightwater, GU18 5RX

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£647,000

£614k - £679kHigh

Estimate

£647k

Range

£614k – £679k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,300

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,300

Yield

4.42%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

14 Birchwood Drive earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 61/100. Investment score 49/100 reflects below-average fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (27/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

61/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

49/ 100

Mixed

Crime Score

30/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

27/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 6Bike 39

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 9 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +3.4% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061560694· as of 14 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.4%; range width penalty ×0.77
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2300/mo (range 2050-2550)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,076/mo, -47% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 9 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 103 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 9 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
62 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£469,000£719,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£625,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,300/mo

Evidenced range £2,050-£2,550

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £210,050
Net cash flow: -£517/mo
Cash on cash: -3.0%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.09 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061560694Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2300/mo (range 2050-2550)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 9 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2300/mo (range 2050-2550)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 103 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£647,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,300

Gross Yield4.42%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.7%

5y Growth+2.7%

10y Growth+2.6%

Last Sold Price£290,000 (2003-08-15)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1GU18 5RX

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

TWA/26/0255
T1 - Willow - crown reduce, back to previous pollard points - currently 9m crown spread and 9m in height, reducing back 2-3m to a final crown spread of 6m and 6m in height.
Pending
26/0909/DTC
Submission of details to comply with condition 9 (CEMP) and condition 10 (lighting) of planning permission 24/1026/FFU Appeal Ref: APP/D3640/W/25/3370563 for the demolition of the 3 existing buildings (Sui Generis), with the erection of two replacement buildings to be used as a flexible Class B8/E use.
Pending
TWA/26/0235
RE T1: English Oak (Quercus robur) Carefully reduce and reshape by 2.5mts overall. Remove all lowest foliage to a height of 7-8mts from ground level. The estimated current crown spread of T1 English Oak is 12mts and height 22mts. The estimated maximum crown spread post reduction will be 9.5mts with an estimated height of 19.5mts, post reduction. RE T2: English Oak Carefully reduce and reshape by 2.5mts overall. The estimated current crown spread of T2 English Oak tree is 10mts and height 22mts. The estimated maximum crown spread post reduction will be 7.5mts with an estimated height of 19.5mts, post reduction. RE T3: English Oak Carefully reduce and reshape by 2.5mts overall. The estimated current crown spread of T3 English Oak tree is 11mts and height 23mts. The estimated maximum crown spread post reduction will be 9.5mts with an estimated height of 21.5mts, post reduction.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership71.7%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2003-08-15
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

5 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£37,793

Population Density3,346 /km²

Owner Occupied88%

Age Distribution

0-15 13%16-64 56%65+ 31%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Lightwater Village Infant School and Nursery
0.6 mi
Good
Lightwater Village Junior School
0.8 mi
Good
Gordon's School
0.8 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Connaught Junior School
1.3 mi
OutstandingImproving

3 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

3 Birchwood Drive
-
£563k
-
19 Birchwood Drive
-
£415k
-
19 Birchwood Drive
-
£350k
-
12 Birchwood Drive
-
£580k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN