53 Birchwood Drive, Lightwater, GU18 5RX

UPRN:100061560715Flat/Maisonette1 bedsBuilt 1983-1990

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band BEPC: C (74)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 3mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 2mo agoRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

53 Birchwood Drive, Lightwater, GU18 5RX

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£206,000

£185k - £226kMedium

Estimate

£206k

Range

£185k – £226k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,050

£950 - £1k

Monthly

£1,050

Yield

6.63%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

53 Birchwood Drive earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 61/100. Investment score 49/100 reflects below-average fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (27/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

61/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

49/ 100

Mixed

Crime Score

30/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

27/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 6Bike 39

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 9 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +7.8% (MEDIUM)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061560715· as of 14 Nov 2026
Rental economics11.9/40
gross yield 6.6%; range width penalty ×0.91
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1100)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -160/mo, -15% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 64 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 9 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.9/15
62 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£142,500£218,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£190,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,050/mo

Evidenced range £950-£1,100

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £59,600
Net cash flow: £86/mo
Cash on cash: 1.7%
Score at this price: 25

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.64 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061560715Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1100)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1100)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£206,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,050

Gross Yield6.63%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.7%

5y Growth+2.7%

10y Growth+2.6%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseHigh

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1GU18 5RX

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

TWA/26/0255
T1 - Willow - crown reduce, back to previous pollard points - currently 9m crown spread and 9m in height, reducing back 2-3m to a final crown spread of 6m and 6m in height.
Pending
26/0909/DTC
Submission of details to comply with condition 9 (CEMP) and condition 10 (lighting) of planning permission 24/1026/FFU Appeal Ref: APP/D3640/W/25/3370563 for the demolition of the 3 existing buildings (Sui Generis), with the erection of two replacement buildings to be used as a flexible Class B8/E use.
Pending
26/0890/SCR
Request for an EIA Screening Opinion (Regulation 6) for construction and operation of upgrade works under permitted development rights at Lightwater Sewage Treatment Works (STW), Blackstroud Lane East, Lightwater, Surrey, GU18 5XR.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership71.7%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining999+ yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeLeasehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

6 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£37,793

Population Density3,346 /km²

Owner Occupied88%

Age Distribution

0-15 13%16-64 56%65+ 31%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Lightwater Village Infant School and Nursery
0.7 mi
Good
Gordon's School
0.7 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Lightwater Village Junior School
0.8 mi
Good
Holy Trinity CofE Primary School
1.3 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.

3 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

3 Birchwood Drive
-
£563k
-
19 Birchwood Drive
-
£415k
-
19 Birchwood Drive
-
£350k
-
12 Birchwood Drive
-
£580k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN