Cape Lodge, Catena Rise, Lightwater, GU18 5RD

UPRN:100061560967Detached House4 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band FEPC: D (66)

Data freshness:Listing· freshOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

Cape Lodge, Catena Rise, Lightwater, GU18 5RD

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£630,000

£598k - £661kHigh

Estimate

£630k

Range

£598k – £661k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,250

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,250

Yield

4.50%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Cape Lodge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 77/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (58/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

77/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

12/ 100

Low

Walkability

58/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 13Bike 46

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 7 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +4.8% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061560967· as of 9 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.5%; range width penalty ×0.80
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2450)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,008/mo, -45% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 7 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 383 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 7 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
62 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£450,000£690,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£600,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,250/mo

Evidenced range £2,000-£2,450

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £201,300
Net cash flow: -£467/mo
Cash on cash: -2.8%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.11 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061560967Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2450)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 7 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 7 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2450)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 383 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£630,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,250

Gross Yield4.50%

1y Growth-69.4%

3y Growth+1.7%

5y Growth+2.7%

10y Growth+2.6%

Last Sold Price£530,000 (2017-12-11)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

3GU18 5RD

Approval Rate

50%12mo

Development

low

26/0962/CES
Certificate of lawfulness for a proposed dropped kerb and associated works.
Pending
TWA/26/0264
T1 - Lombardy Poplar - reduce height by 8m to leave a finished height of 15m. The tree has grown very tall for a suburban environment close to several properties, road and footpaths.
Pending
TWA/26/0235
RE T1: English Oak (Quercus robur) Carefully reduce and reshape by 2.5mts overall. Remove all lowest foliage to a height of 7-8mts from ground level. The estimated current crown spread of T1 English Oak is 12mts and height 22mts. The estimated maximum crown spread post reduction will be 9.5mts with an estimated height of 19.5mts, post reduction. RE T2: English Oak Carefully reduce and reshape by 2.5mts overall. The estimated current crown spread of T2 English Oak tree is 10mts and height 22mts. The estimated maximum crown spread post reduction will be 7.5mts with an estimated height of 19.5mts, post reduction. RE T3: English Oak Carefully reduce and reshape by 2.5mts overall. The estimated current crown spread of T3 English Oak tree is 11mts and height 23mts. The estimated maximum crown spread post reduction will be 9.5mts with an estimated height of 21.5mts, post reduction.
Pending

View Planning Timeline