5 Pavilion Court, Orchard Drive, Theydon Bois, Epping, CM16 7DJ

UPRN:10022862641Flat/Maisonette2 bedsBuilt 2012-2021

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: B (86)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· freshRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

5 Pavilion Court, Orchard Drive, Theydon Bois, Epping, CM16 7DJ

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£941,000

£753k - £1.13MLow

Estimate

£941k

Range

£753k – £1.13M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£4,100

£4k - £5k

Monthly

£4,100

Yield

7.57%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

5 Pavilion Court earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 78/100. Investment score 69/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (54/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

78/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

69/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

11/ 100

Low

Walkability

54/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 22Bike 37

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the estimate sits 31% above the ask; lead to verify: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [sold-comps -2.0%, £/sqft -2.1%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; AVM excluded (estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor)
estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 3 comps, dispersion 8.3%· as of 27 Oct 2026
Rental economics17.1/40
gross yield 7.6%; range width penalty ×0.83; the estimate this rent rides on sits 31% above the ask - check the rent describes the advertised home
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 4100/mo (range 3750-4500)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
- valuation_snapshotssale estimate 31% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin3.4/30
stressed cash flow +141/mo, +3% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 27 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity9.2/15
236 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 40%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£487,500£747,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£650,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£4,100/mo

Evidenced range £3,750-£4,500

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £218,800
Net cash flow: £645/mo
Cash on cash: 3.5%
Score at this price: 30

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.87 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 3 comps, dispersion 8.3%Valuation edge · as of 27 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 4100/mo (range 3750-4500)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
valuation_snapshotssale estimate 31% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this homeRental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 4100/mo (range 3750-4500)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
sale estimate 31% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The market estimate this rent rides on sits far above the asking price, so the rent may describe a different home.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£941,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£4,100

Gross Yield7.57%

1y Growth-9.8%

3y Growth-2.4%

5y Growth-0.6%

10y Growth+1.8%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

4CM16 7DJ

Approval Rate

66.7%12mo

Development

low

EPF/2047/26
Demolition of existing side and rear extensions, and garage, construction of two storey side and rear extensions.
Pending
EPF/2036/26
Removal of the existing single storey rear extensions with a two-storey rear wrap around extension, double storey side extension and loft conversion.
Pending
EPF/1985/26
Dropped kerb and vehicle access to the property.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership64.7%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining999+ yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeLeasehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

18 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£38,171

Population Density235 /km²

Owner Occupied78%

Age Distribution

0-15 14%16-64 56%65+ 30%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Theydon Bois Primary School
0.2 mi
Good
Davenant Foundation School
0.9 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Hereward Primary School
1.0 mi
Outstanding
Coopersale Hall School
1.2 mi
Inspected by ISI

6 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

10 Orchard Drive
-
£840k
-
18 Orchard Drive
-
£785k
-
48 Orchard Drive
-
£870k
-
40 Orchard Drive
-
£980k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN