40 Swanfield Road, Waltham Cross, EN8 7JR

UPRN:148012757End Terrace Property2 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: D (59)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

40 Swanfield Road, Waltham Cross, EN8 7JR

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£398,000

£378k - £418kHigh

Estimate

£398k

Range

£378k – £418k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,000

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,000

Yield

6.40%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

40 Swanfield Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 70/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is excellent (85/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

70/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

51/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

85/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 15Bike 66

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 3 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2/15
claims [AVM +5.8% (HIGH), sold-comps +2.3%, £/sqft +2.4%] → measured edge +0.39pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 148012757· as of 9 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 11.6%· as of 1 Nov 2026
Rental economics10.6/40
gross yield 6.4%; range width penalty ×0.95
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2000/mo (range 1900-2150)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -242/mo, -12% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 57 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
316 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£281,000£431,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£375,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,000/mo

Evidenced range £1,900-£2,150

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £122,550
Net cash flow: £119/mo
Cash on cash: 1.2%
Score at this price: 27

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.58 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 148012757Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 11.6%Valuation edge · as of 1 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2000/mo (range 1900-2150)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2000/mo (range 1900-2150)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 57 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£398,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,000

Gross Yield6.40%

1y Growth+8.5%

3y Growth+1.8%

5y Growth+2.4%

10y Growth+3.6%

Last Sold Price£330,000 (2018-07-27)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0EN8 7JR

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

07/26/0858/TW
1x Yew tree in front garden - reducing its width to 12 feet and the height by 2 feet as in previous application (07/20/0787/TW). 4x Oak trees (3 trees in front garden and 1 in rear garden) reducing and shaped as in previous application which was for pruning works to the larger branches above 12ft from ground level and deadwood and tidy crown to shape.
Pending
07/26/0850/F
Two storey roof extension to form 9no. residential apartments with associated works
Pending
07/26/0848/F
Installation of 2no. DC rapid electric vehicle chargers serving four dedicated EV charging bays, together with a substation, feeder pillar, associated infrastructure, signage and an approximately 2m extension to the existing dropped kerb
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership57.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2018-07-27
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

18 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£37,283

Population Density8,117 /km²

Owner Occupied56%

Age Distribution

0-15 22%16-64 69%65+ 9%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Four Swannes Primary School
0.1 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
St Joseph's Catholic Primary School (Wx)
0.3 mi
Inspected as St Joseph's Catholic Primary School (URN 117429) on 26 Apr 2017
Hurst Drive Primary School
0.4 mi
GoodConcerns
Holy Trinity Church of England Primary School
0.4 mi
GoodConcerns

2 of 13 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

42 Swanfield Road
-
£385k
-
Hugill House Swanfield Road
-
£385k
-
Hugill House Swanfield Road
-
£400k
-
Hugill House Swanfield Road
-
£385k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN