4 Winchester Avenue, London, NW9 9SY

UPRN:202030631-Beds -Built -

Tenure: -Council Tax: Band EEPC: -

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 6mo ago

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£603,000

£543k - £663kMedium

Estimate

£603k

Range

£543k – £663k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,100

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£3,100

Yield

6.76%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

4 Winchester Avenue earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 78/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is excellent (92/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

78/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

31/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

92/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 44Bike 49

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 30 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +8.8% (MEDIUM)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 202030631· as of 10 Oct 2026
Rental economics12.8/40
gross yield 6.8%; range width penalty ×0.91
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3100/mo (range 2850-3300)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
- listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield· as of 30 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -172/mo, -6% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 30 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 75 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 30 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity12.9/15
373 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£412,500£632,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£550,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,100/mo

Evidenced range £2,850-£3,300

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £183,800
Net cash flow: £290/mo
Cash on cash: 1.9%
Score at this price: 26

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.67 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 202030631Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3100/mo (range 2850-3300)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yieldRental economics · as of 30 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 30 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 30 Oct 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3100/mo (range 2850-3300)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
listing text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£603,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,100

Gross Yield6.76%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-4.0%

5y Growth-1.2%

10y Growth+0.7%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NW9 9SY

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/2697
Prior approval for a single storey rear extension to dwellinghouse, in metres: Extending beyond the rear wall of the original house - 4m Maximum height - 3.4m Eaves height - 3m
Pending
26/2647
Prior approval for a single storey rear extension to dwellinghouse, in metres: Extending beyond the rear wall of the original house - 4.5m Maximum height - 3.4m Eaves height - 3m
Pending
26/2646
Proposed demolition of adjoining garage, front porch, chimney stack, rear patio, erection of two-storey side-to- rear extension, rear patio, front porch, rear dormer extension, hip-to-gable roof extension, installation of 2x front rooflights, alterations to fenestration, and erection of single-storey outbuilding in the rear garden of the dwellinghouse.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership34.1%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease Type-
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

16 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£34,871

Population Density8,772 /km²

Owner Occupied59%

Age Distribution

0-15 18%16-64 69%65+ 13%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Kingsbury High School
0.3 mi
Good
Roe Green Junior School
0.3 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Roe Green Infant School
0.3 mi
Good
Southover Partnership School
0.4 mi
Inspected by ISI

3 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

32 Winchester Avenue
-
£600k
-
34 Winchester Avenue
-
£535k
-
16 Winchester Avenue
-
£480k
-
66 Winchester Avenue
-
£510k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN