Lilac House, 2 Modbury Gardens, London, NW5 3QE

UPRN:5010673Mid Terrace House3 bedsBuilt before 1900

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band GEPC: D (56)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 4mo ago

Lilac House, 2 Modbury Gardens, London, NW5 3QE

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£1,786,000

£1.70M - £1.88MHigh

Estimate

£1.79M

Range

£1.70M – £1.88M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£6,650

£6k - £7k

Monthly

£6,650

Yield

4.56%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Lilac House earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 77/100. Investment score 72/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is excellent (95/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

77/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

72/ 100

High

Crime Score

41/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

95/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 81Bike 78

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 31 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +2.0% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 5010673· as of 9 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.6%; range width penalty ×0.79
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 6650/mo (range 6000-7350)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -2,625/mo, -39% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 31 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 275 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 31 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
213 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£1,312,500£1,969,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,750,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£6,650/mo

Evidenced range £6,000-£7,350

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £650,050
Net cash flow: -£1,302/mo
Cash on cash: -2.4%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.13 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 5010673Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 6650/mo (range 6000-7350)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 31 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 31 Oct 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 6650/mo (range 6000-7350)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 275 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£1,786,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£6,650

Gross Yield4.56%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-1.4%

5y Growth-0.6%

10y Growth-0.4%

Last Sold Price£1,600,000 (2019-12-06)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NW5 3QE

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

2026/4254/P
Retention of 2 x exterior condenser units to the rear (retrospective).
Pending
2026/4829/T
FRONT GARDEN: 1 x Eucalyptus (T1) - Fell to ground level. REAR GARDEN: 1 x Sycamore (T2) - Reduce height by approx. 4m.
Pending
2026/4819/T
FRONT GARDEN: 1 x Ceanothus (T4) - Lift overhanging branches away from privet hedge, creating 1m clearance.
Pending

View Planning Timeline