38 Oak Tree Rise, Merthyr Tydfil, CF47 0SN

UPRN:10034657592Detached House3 bedsBuilt 2003-2006

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (75)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 5mo agoRisk· 2y agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

38 Oak Tree Rise, Merthyr Tydfil, CF47 0SN

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£300,000

£285k - £315kHigh

Estimate

£300k

Range

£285k – £315k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,700

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,700

Yield

7.42%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

38 Oak Tree Rise earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 85/100. Investment score 79/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

85/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

79/ 100

High

Crime Score

15/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Reduced confidence2 independent sourcesListing checked 23 Oct 2026

Fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +8.3% (HIGH), sold-comps +22.3%, £/sqft +22.3%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10034657592· as of 9 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 8.8%· as of 5 Oct 2026
Rental economics18.7/40
gross yield 7.4%; range width penalty ×0.96
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1600-1800)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -41/mo, -2% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 23 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 170 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 23 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
166 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£261,000£316,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£274,995

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,700/mo

Evidenced range £1,600-£1,800

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £87,549
Net cash flow: £249/mo
Cash on cash: 3.4%
Score at this price: 36

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.83 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10034657592Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 8.8%Valuation edge · as of 5 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1600-1800)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 23 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 23 Oct 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is reduced
fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1700/mo (range 1600-1800)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 170 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£300,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,700

Gross Yield7.42%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+2.2%

5y Growth+5.4%

10y Growth+5.3%

Last Sold Price£205,995 (2006-12-15)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningSignificant
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF47 0SN

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

P/26/0222
Rear dormer extension
Pending
P/26/0196
Rear infill single storey extension, raise existing rear extension roof, and new doors to side elevation. Construction of detached garden room.
Pending
P/26/0184
Display an array of adverts to the front and side of the premises
Approved

View Planning Timeline